Market Outlook
Aug 02, 2018
Market Cues
Domestic Indices
Chg (%)
(Pts)
(Close)
Indian markets are likely to open flat tracking global indices and SGX Nifty.
BSE Sensex
(0.2)
(85)
37,522
U.S. stocks turned mixed over the course of the trading session on Wednesday. The
Nifty
(0.1)
(10)
11,346
Dow and the S&P 500 pulled back into negative territory, while the Nasdaq added
Mid Cap
0.2
30
16,043
to yesterday's gains. The Dow Jones was down by 0.3% to 25,334 and the Nasdaq
Small Cap
0.3
44
16,628
increased by 0.5% to 7,707.
Bankex
(0.6)
(171)
30,835
U.K. shares tumbled yesterday as weak manufacturing data from China pulled
down miners and survey data from IHS Markit and Chartered Institute of
Global Indices
Chg (%)
(Pts)
(Close)
Procurement & Supply showed the U.K. manufacturing sector expanded at the
slowest pace in three months in July. The benchmark FTSE 100 declined by 1.2% to
Dow Jones
(0.3)
(81)
25,334
7,653.
Nasdaq
0.5
36
7,707
FTSE
(1.2)
(96)
7,653
On domestic front, Indian shares gave up early gains to end slightly lower on
Wednesday after manufacturing data disappointed and the RBI hiked the repo rate
Nikkei
0.9
193
22,747
by 25 basis points amid growing inflation concerns due to hikes in minimum support
Hang Seng
(0.8)
(242)
28,341
prices for kharif crops. The BSE Sensex dipped by 0.2% to 37,522.
Shanghai Com
(1.8)
(52)
2,825
News Analysis
Advances / Declines
BSE
NSE
Conflicting views between govt and RBI led to withdraw of FRDI Bill
Advances
1,418
910
Detailed analysis on Pg2
Declines
1,295
879
Unchanged
143
106
Investor’s Ready Reckoner
Key Domestic & Global Indicators
Volumes (` Cr)
Stock Watch: Latest investment recommendations on 150+ stocks
BSE
3,394
Refer Pg5 onwards
NSE
33,781
Top Picks
CMP
Target
Upside
Company
Sector
Rating
(`)
(`)
(%)
Net Inflows (` Cr)
Net
Mtd
Ytd
Blue Star
Capital Goods
Buy
675
867
28.4
FII
(624)
(2,666)
-7,505
Dewan Housing Finance
Financials
Buy
591
720
21.8
*MFs
(199)
5,512
74,115
Parag Milk Foods
Others
Buy
306
410
33.8
Bata India
Others
Accumulate
942
1,007
6.9
Top Gainers
Price (`)
Chg (%)
KEI Industries
Capital Goods
Buy
436
589
35.1
More Top Picks on Pg4
ABFRL
154
9.5
GATI
115
8.9
Key Upcoming Events
Previous
Consensus
HINDCOPPER
65
8.0
Date
Region
Event Description
ReadingExpectations
IDBI
62
5.6
Aug 02, 2018 Germany PMI Services
54.40
54.40
TRIDENT
59
5.4
Aug 02, 2018 US
Change in Nonfarm payrolls
213.00
190.00
Aug 02, 2018 US
Unnemployment rate
4.00
3.90
Top Losers
Price (`)
Chg (%)
Aug 08, 2018 China
Exports YoY%
11.20
Aug 08, 2018 US
Producer Price Index (mom)
-
TATAGLOBAL
236
-4.5
More Events on Pg7
TATASTEELPP
121
-4.4
RAYMOND
802
-4.3
RELINFRA
383
-4.1
EMAMILTD
567
-4.0
As on Aug 01, 2018
Market Outlook
Aug 02, 2018
News Analysis
Conflicting views between govt and RBI led to withdraw of FRDI Bill
Before the government decided to withdraw the contentious Financial Resolution
and Deposit Insurance (FRDI) Bill, 2017, various regulators and institutions had
objected to it. These included the Reserve Bank of India (RBI), which criticised
various provisions that might have transferred some of its powers to the
proposed Resolution Corporation. Strong opposition came from the RBI governor
Urjit Patel, who pressed for a need to create a clear distinction between the role of
the regulator and the proposed Corporation.
The Resolution Corporation was proposed to carry out speedy and efficient
resolution of financial firms in distress, including banks and insurance companies.
It
would have taken over failing banks, run, sell and even liquidate
these. RBI demanded for itself a dominant role in risk assessment of lenders under
the new framework. According to a proposal in the Bill, the Resolution
Corporation would have classified financial entities according to the risks they
posed. In categories such as material, imminent or critical risk to viability, and take
appropriate action. The Insolvency and Bankruptcy Board of India stressed the
need for a “clear division of jurisdiction between Resolution Corporation,
Insolvency and Bankruptcy Board and Insolvency Code”, apart from other issues.
The Competition Commission of India expressed concern on the powers proposed
to be given to the Resolution Corporation, in case there was a difference in
opinion on classification of financial institutions in the risk categories. And, the
National Housing Bank demanded its inclusion as a regulator for housing finance
companies under the Bill.
Economic and Political News
GST collections inch up in July to ₹ 96,483 crore on e-way bill usage
Manufacturing PMI eases to 52.8 in July as new orders, output rise
Centre clears GST refund worth Rs 543.78 bn of exporters till July end
Corporate News
Govt may move HC against arbitration ruling that went in favour of RIL
Kotak Mahindra Bank to raise up to ₹500 crore via preference shares
Bhushan power insolvency: NCLAT allows bidders to revise offers by Monday
Piramal set to demerge pharma, finance arms, list them on stock exchange
Trai recommends sale of airwaves of over Rs 5 trn for 5G auction
Market Outlook
Aug 02, 2018
Quarterly Bloomberg Brokers Consensus Estimate
Marico Ltd - August 02, 2018
Particulars (` cr)
1QFY19E
1QFY18
y-o-y (%)
4QFY18
q-o-q (%)
Sales
1,963
1,681
16.8
1,480
32.6
EBIDTA
356
324
9.9
252
41.3
%
18.1
19.3
17.0
PAT
262
235
11.5
183
43.2
Indiabulls Housing Finance Ltd - August 02, 2018
Particulars (` cr)
1QFY19E
1QFY18
y-o-y (%)
4QFY18
q-o-q (%)
PAT
1009
788
28.0
1,030
(2.0)
ONGC Ltd - August 02, 2018
Particulars (` cr)
1QFY19E
1QFY18
y-o-y (%)
4QFY18
q-o-q (%)
Sales
26,946
19,073
41.3
23,969
12.4
EBIDTA
14,085
8,823
59.6
8,346
68.7
%
52.2
46.3
34.8
PAT
6,697
3,884
72.4
5,915
13.2
Titan Ltd - August 03, 2018
Particulars (` cr)
1QFY19E
1QFY18
y-o-y (%)
4QFY18
q-o-q (%)
Sales
4,182
3,985
4.9
4,107
1.8
EBIDTA
439
354
24.0
429
2.3
%
10.5
8.9
10.4
PAT
298
237
25.7
304
(2.0)
Nestle India Ltd - August 03, 2018
Particulars (` cr)
1QFY19E
1QFY18
y-o-y (%)
4QFY18
q-o-q (%)
Sales
2,684
2,402
11.7
2,757
(2.6)
EBIDTA
619
461
34.3
696
(11.1)
%
23.1
19.2
25.2
PAT
367
263
39.5
424
(13.4)
Market Outlook
Aug 02, 2018
Top Picks
Market Cap
CMP
Target
Upside
Company
Rationale
(` Cr)
(`)
(`)
(%)
Favorable outlook for the AC industry to augur well
for Cooling products business which is out pacing
Blue Star
6,484
674
867
28.6
the market growth. EMPPAC division's profitability
to improve once operating environment turns
around.
With a focus on the low and medium income (LMI)
consumer segment, the company has increased its
Dewan Housing Finance
18,835
601
720
19.9
presence in tier-II & III cities where the growth
opportunity is immense.
Well capitalized with CAR of 18.1% which gives
sufficient room to grow asset base. Faster resolution
ICICI Bank
195,505
304
416
36.9
of NPA would reduce provision cost, which would
help to report better ROE.
High order book execution in EPC segment, rising
KEI Industries
3,507
448
589
31.6
B2C sales and higher exports to boost the revenues
and profitability
Expected to benefit from the lower capex
Music Broadcast Limited
1,785
313
475
51.9
requirement and 15 year long radio broadcast
licensing.
Strong brands and distribution network would boost
Siyaram Silk Mills
2,518
537
851
58.4
growth going ahead. Stock currently trades at an
inexpensive valuation.
GST regime and the Gujarat plant are expected to
Maruti Suzuki
287,169
9,506
10,820
13.8
improve the company’s sales volume and margins,
respectively.
We expect loan book to grow at 24.3% over next
GIC Housing
1,911
355
591
66.5
two year; change in borrowing mix will help in NIM
improvement
Third largest brand play in luggage segment
Increased product offerings and improving
Safari Industries
1,600
718
800
11.5
distribution network is leading to strong growth in
business. Likely to post robust growth for next 3-4
years
We expect financialisation of savings and
Aditya Birla Capital
32,249
147
218
48.8
increasing penetration in Insurance & Mutual fund
would ensure steady growth.
One of the leading Indian dairy products
companies in India created strong brands in dairy
products. Rising revenue share of high-margin
Parag Milk Foods
2,478
295
410
39.2
Value Added Products and reduction in interest cost
is likely to boost margins and earnings in next few
years.
We expect MCL to report net revenue CAGR of
~15% to ~`450cr over FY2018-20E mainly due to
strong growth in online matchmaking & marriage
Matrimony.com Ltd
1,666
733
1,016
38.6
related services. On the bottom-line front, we
expect a CAGR of ~28% to `82cr over the same
period on the back margin improvement.
HDFC Bank maintained its steady growth in the
4QFY18. The bank’s net profit grew by 20.3%.
Steady growth in interest income and other income
HDFC Bank
567,980
2,181
2,350
7.7
aided PAT growth. The Strong liability franchise and
healthy capitalisation provides strong earning
visibility. At the current market price, the bank is
trading at 3.2x FY20E ABV.
Source: Company, Angel Research
Market Outlook
Aug 02, 2018
Top Picks
Market Cap
CMP
Target
Upside
Company
Rationale
(` Cr)
(`)
(`)
(%)
We expect strong PAT growth on back of
healthy growth in automobile segment (on back
of new launches and facelifts in some of the
M&M
1,15,254
926
1,050
15.3
model ) and strong growth in Tractors segment
coupled by its strong brand recall and
improvement in rural sentiment
Market leader in the room air conditioner (RAC)
outsourced manufacturing space in India with a
market share of
55.4%. It is a one-stop
Amber Enterprises
3116
995
1,230
24.1
solutions provider for the major brands in the
RAC industry and currently serves eight out of
the 10 top RAC brands in India
BIL is the largest footwear retailer in India,
offering footwear, accessories and bags across
brands. We expect BIL to report net PAT CAGR
of
~16% to
~`3115cr over FY2018-20E
Bata India
12,102
942
1,007
6.9
mainly due to new product launches, higher
number of stores addition and focus on
women’s high growth segment and margin
improvement
SHTF is in the sweet spot with benefits from
stronger CV volumes, NIMs unaffected by rising
Shriram Transport Finance
31,473
1,387
1,764
27.7
bond yields on the back of stronger pricing
power and an enhancing ROE by 750bps over
FY18-20E, supported by decline in credit cost.
We expect JSPL’s top line to grow at 27% CAGR
over FY19-FY20 on the back of strong steel
demand and capacity addition. On the bottom
Jindal Steel & Power Limited
19,460
201
350
72.6
line front, we expect JSPL to turn in to profit by
FY19 on back of strong operating margin
improvement.
GMM Pfaudler Limited (GMM) is the Indian
market leader in glass-lined (GL) steel
equipment. GMM is expected to cross CAGR
GMM Pfaudler Ltd
1,344
920
1,020
11.9
15%+ in revenue over the next few years
mainly led by uptick in demand from user
industries and it is also expecting to increase its
share of non-GL business to 50% by 2020.
Aurobindo Pharmaceuticals, amongst the
Indian Pharmaceutical companies, is well
placed to face the challenging generic markets,
given its focus on achieving growth through
Aurobindo Pharmaceuticals
35,158
599
780
31.9
productivity. Aurobindo will report net revenue
& net profit CAGR of ~13% & ~8% resp.
during FY2018-20E. Valuations are cheap V/s
its peers and own fair multiples of 17-18x.
Well planned strategy to grow small business
loans and cross-selling would propel fees
Yes Bank
84,419
366
435
17.6
income. We expect YES to grow its advance
much higher than industry and improvement in
asset quality to support profitability.
We believe advance to grow at a healthy CAGR
of 35% over FY18-20E. Below peers level ROA
RBL Bank
23,920
566
670
16.1
(1.2% FY18) to expand led by margin
expansion and lower credit cost.
Source: Company, Angel Research
Market Outlook
Aug 02, 2018
Fundamental Call
Market Cap
CMP
Target
Upside
Company
Rationale
(` Cr)
(`)
(`)
(%)
CCL is likely to maintain the strong growth
CCL Products
3,568
265
360
34.2
trajectory over FY18-20 backed by capacity
expansion and new geographical foray
We forecast Nilkamal to report top-line CAGR of
~9% to `2,635cr over FY17-20E on the back of
Nilkamal
2,691
1,803
2,178
21.0
healthy demand growth in plastic division. On the
bottom-line front, we estimate
~10% CAGR to
`162cr owing to improvement in volumes.
Elantas Beck India is the Indian market leader in
liquid insulation segment used in electrical
equipments like motors, transformers etc. It derives
Elantas Beck India Ltd
1,591
2,007
2,500
23.2
demand from several industries which are expected
to register 10%+ CAGR in demand in the coming
years.
Greenply Industries Ltd (GIL) manufactures plywood
& allied products and medium density fibreboards
(MDF). GIL to report net revenue CAGR of ~14% to
Greenply Industries
2,636
209
333
54.1
~`2,478cr over FY2017-20E mainly due to healthy
growth in plywood & lamination business on the
back of strong brand and distribution network
L&T Fin’s new management is on track to achieve
L&T Finance Holding
35,338
176
210
18.7
ROE of 18% by 2020 and recent capital infusion of
`3000cr would support advance growth.
Market Outlook
Aug 02, 2018
Key Upcoming Events
Result Calendar
Date
Company
Wednesday
August 01, 2018
Tata Global, Apollo Tyres, Elecon Engineering, Reliance Infra.
Thursday
August 02, 2018
J K Lakshmi Cements, Marico, MOIL, ONGC, Visaka Industries, Narayana Hrudaya
Source: Bloomberg, Angel Research
Global economic events release calendar
Bloomberg Data
Date
Time
Country
Event Description
Unit
Period
Last Reported
Estimated
Aug 01, 2018
11:30 PMUS
FOMC rate decision
%
Aug 1
2.00
2.00
1:25 PMGermany PMI Manufacturing
Value
Jul F
57.30
57.30
2:00 PMUK
PMI Manufacturing
Value
Jul
54.40
54.20
2:30 PMIndia
RBI Reverse Repo rate
%
Aug 1
6.00
6.25
2:30 PMIndia
RBI Repo rate
%
Aug 1
6.25
6.50
2:30 PMIndia
RBI Cash Reserve ratio
%
Aug 1
4.00
4.00
Aug 02, 2018
6:00 PMUS
Initial Jobless claims
Thousands
Jul 28
217.00
220.00
4:30 PMUK
BOE Announces rates
% Ratio
Aug 2
0.50
0.75
Aug 03, 2018
1:25 PMGermany PMI Services
Value
Jul F
54.40
54.40
6:00 PMUS
Change in Nonfarm payrolls
Thousands
Jul
213.00
190.00
6:00 PMUS
Unnemployment rate
%
Jul
4.00
3.90
Aug 08, 2018
China
Exports YoY%
% Change
Jul
11.20
Source: Bloomberg, Angel Research
Market Outlook
Aug 02, 2018
Macro watch
Exhibit 1: Quarterly GDP trends
Exhibit 2: IIP trends
(%)
(%)
10.0
9.0
8.5
9.1
8.0
7.3
7.5
9.0
6.9
8.0
8.1
7.6
7.6
7.7
7.0
8.0
7.2
6.8
7.0
6.0
7.0
6.3
4.8
4.6
4.8
6.1
5.0
4.1
5.6
6.0
4.0
3.2
5.0
3.0
1.8
4.0
2.0
1.0
1.0
3.0
-
Source: CSO, Angel Research
Source: MOSPI, Angel Research
Exhibit 3: Monthly CPI inflation trends
Exhibit 4: Manufacturing and services PMI
56.0
Mfg. PMI
Services PMI
(%)
6.0
54.0
5.2
5.1
5.0
4.9
4.9
52.0
5.0
4.4
4.6
4.3
50.0
4.0
3.6
3.3
3.3
48.0
3.0
2.4
46.0
2.0
44.0
1.0
42.0
40.0
-
Source: Market, Angel Research; Note: Level above 50 indicates expansion
Source: MOSPI, Angel Research
Exhibit 5: Exports and imports growth trends
Exhibit 6: Key policy rates
(%)
Exports yoy growth
Imports yoy growth
(%)
Repo rate
Reverse Repo rate
CRR
35.0
6.50
30.0
6.00
25.0
5.50
20.0
5.00
15.0
4.50
10.0
4.00
5.0
0.0
3.50
(5.0)
3.00
Source: Bloomberg, Angel Research
Source: RBI, Angel Research
Market Outlook
Aug 02, 2018
Global watch
Exhibit 1: Latest quarterly GDP Growth (%, yoy) across select developing and developed countries
(%)
8.0
6.9
7.0
5.8
6.0
5.3
5.0
5.0
1.1
3.7
4.0
2.5
3.0
2.2
1.8
2.0
1.5
1.4
0.8
1.0
0.3
-
Source: Bloomberg, Angel Research
Exhibit 2: 2017 GDP Growth projection by IMF (%, yoy) across select developing and developed countries
(%)
6.7
6.8
7.0
6.0
5.4
5.2
5.0
3.7
4.0
3.0
1.8
2.2
2.0
1.7
1.6
1.5
2.0
0.7
0.7
1.0
-
Source: IMF, Angel Research
Exhibit 3: One year forward P-E ratio across select developing and developed countries
(x)
20.0
18.0
16.0
14.0
12.0
10.0
8.0
6.0
4.0
2.0
-
Source: IMF, Angel Research
Market Outlook
Aug 02, 2018
Exhibit 4: Relative performance of indices across globe
Returns (%)
Country
Name of index
Closing price
1M
3M
1YR
Brazil
Bovespa
80,276
13.7
(7.1)
24.1
Russia
Micex
4,339
1.4
7.1
11.4
India
Nifty
11,320
6.0
6.0
13.4
China
Shanghai Composite
2,869
1.0
(6.7)
(11.2)
South Africa
Top 40
51,228
(1.0)
(1.0)
4.4
Mexico
Mexbol
49,705
5.7
2.8
(2.9)
Indonesia
LQ45
954
2.7
(9.1)
(4.7)
Malaysia
KLCI
1,770
6.3
(5.9)
0.7
Thailand
SET 50
1,126
6.3
(3.8)
12.9
USA
Dow Jones
25,307
4.9
4.1
15.6
UK
FTSE
7,701
1.1
2.6
3.7
Japan
Nikkei
22,545
1.2
1.5
12.2
Germany
DAX
12,798
4.0
1.5
4.5
France
CAC
5,491
3.2
(0.6)
5.6
Source: Bloomberg, Angel Research as on 1 August, 2018
Market Outlook
Aug 02, 2018
Exhibit 7: Historical Angel Top Picks/Fundamental Calls
Date Added
Top Picks/Fundamental
Stocks
Reco Price
Target/Revised Price
Current Status
06-07-2018
Top Picks
Aurobindo Pharma
603
780
Open
06-07-2018
Top Picks
RBL Bank
565
670
Open
06-07-2018
Top Picks
Yes Bank
348
418
Open
30-06-2018
Top Picks
Jindal Steel & Power
222
350
Open
20-06-2018
Top Picks
Shriram Transport Finance Com
1,466
1,764
Open
30-07-2018
Top Picks
Bata India
918
1,007
Open
23-07-2018
Top Picks
Bata India
842
955
01-07-2018
Top Picks
Bata India
862
948
18-06-2018
Top Picks
Bata India
779
896
14-06-2018
Top Picks
Amber Enterprises
1,026
1,230
Open
07-06-2018
Top Picks
M&M
918
1050
Open
04-05-2018
Top Picks
M&M
860
990
03-05-2018
Fundamental
L&T Finance Holding
171
210
Open
02-05-2018
Top Picks
HDFC Bank
1944
2315
Open
04-05-2018
Top Picks
Matrimony.com Ltd
810
1016
Open
20-04-2018
Top Picks
Matrimony.com Ltd
781
984
15-05-2018
Top Picks
Parag Milk Foods Limited
310
410
Open
16-04-2018
Top Picks
Parag Milk Foods Limited
249
333
29-06-2018
Fundamental
GMM Pfaudler Limited
932
1,020
Open
14-05-2018
Fundamental
GMM Pfaudler Limited
818
900
06-04-2018
Fundamental
GMM Pfaudler Limited
712
861
07-03-2018
Fundamental
Ashok Leyland Ltd
139
163
Closed (26/04/2018)
03-03-2018
Fundamental
Greenply Industries
340
395
Open
16-07-2018
Top Picks
Safari Industries
693
800
Open
16-04-2018
Top Picks
Safari Industries
651
750
21-02-2018
Top Picks
Safari Industries
532
650
31-05-2018
Top Picks
HSIL Ltd
348
Closed (31/05/2018)
16-02-2018
Top Picks
HSIL Ltd
433
510
07-02-2018
Fundamental
Elantas Beck India Ltd.
2155
2500
Open
01-02-2018
Top Picks
ICICI Bank
352
416
Open
01-02-2018
Top Picks
Aditya Birla Capital
167
218
Open
04-01-2018
Fundamental
CCL Products
278
360
Open
03-01-2018
Fundamental
Nilkamal Ltd
1880
2178
Open
01-01-2018
Fundamental
Capital First Ltd
693
850
Closed (15/01/2018)
30-12-2017
Fundamental
Shreyans Industries Ltd
205
247
Closed
Fundamental
Prism Cement Ltd
160
Closed (09/05/2018)
21-12-2017
Fundamental
Prism Cement Ltd
118
131
18-12-2017
Fundamental
Menon Bearings Limited
92
114
Closed (17/01/2018)
14-12-2017
Top Picks
Ruchira Papers Ltd.
188
244
Closed (09/02/2018)
17-05-2018
Top Picks
Century Plyboards India
280
Closed(17/05/2018)
28-11-2017
Top Picks
Century Plyboards India
317
400
19-12-2017
Top Picks
LT Foods
85
Closed(18/06/2018)
06-11-2017
Top Picks
LT Foods
74
96
16-10-2017
Fundamental
Endurance Technologies Ltd
1111
1277
Closed (01/12/2017)
11-09-2017
Top Picks
GIC Housing
533
655
Open
10-10-2017
Top Picks
Music Broadcast Limited
404
475
Open
Source: Company, Angel Research
Market Outlook
Aug 02, 2018
Exhibit 8: Historical Angel Top Picks/Fundamental Calls
Date Added
Top Picks/Fundamental
Stocks
Reco Price
Target/Revised Price
Current Status
20-07-2017
Top Picks Music Broadcast Limited
368
434
07-07-2017
Fundamental L&T Finance Holdings Ltd
149
179
Closed (28/8/2017)
06-07-2017
Fundamental
Syngene International
478
564
Closed (1/3/2018)
05-07-2017
Top Picks
Maruti
7371
10619
Open
05-06-2017
Top Picks
Karur Vysya Bank
127
100
Closed (12/03/2018)
23-05-2018
Top Picks
KEI Industries
481
589
Open
04-01-2017
Top Picks
KEI Industries
125
485
31-05-2018
Top Picks
Alkem Lab
1978
Closed (31/05/2018)
01-12-2016
Top Picks
Alkem Lab
1700
2441
17-10-2016
Top Picks
Asian Granito
267
534
Closed (18/02/2018)
17-05-2018
Top Picks
TV Today Network
460
Closed (17/05/2018)
04-08-2016
Top Picks
TV Today Network
297
603
05-04-2016
Top Picks
DHFL
189
720
Open
25-06-2018
Top Picks
Navkar Corporation
207
Closed(25/06/2018)
05-01-2016
Top Picks
Navkar Corporation
207
265
Open
08-12-2015
Top Picks
Blue Star
357
867
Open
30-10-2015
Top Picks
Siyaram Silk Mills
186
851
Open
Source: Company
Market Outlook
Aug 02, 2018
Research Team Tel: 022 - 39357800
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